SOMETCUBA Bulletin

Volume  6  Number 1

January 2000

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THE CHANGE-POINT INSTABILITY OF CLIMATOLOGICAL TIME-SERIES AS ALTERNATIVE TO RANDOMNESS. THE EXAMPLE OF ANNUAL TEMPERATURE AVERAGES 1908 - 1995 AT CASABLANCA (CUBA).

Tables

Table 1. Testing trend and serial correlation against randomness of the series of ranks

u(t) ud(t) u(rs) ux(t) udx(t) m(EC) s(EC)
3.73 .25 4.37 3.73/4.92 -2.67/2.80 24.671 .3465
Standardized trend statistics u(t) for the rank series, ud(t) for the dispersion and u(rs) for serial correlation. Extreme values ux(t) and udx(t) in the corresponding sequential trend analysis of the rank series and of its dispersion. Mean m and standard deviation s of the series of elements.

 

Table 2. Testing homogeneity of sequences
P n u(t) ud(t) u(rd) P(N) s(°C) m(°C)
1910, 1919 7 .45 .15 -.09 .36 .2062 24.032
1952, 1971 10 .63 .98 -1.18 .52 .2533 24.319
1923, 1956 8 .00 .99 -2.37 .975 .1344 24.485
1927, 1964 12 -.14 1.92 -1.88 .967 .1275 24.607
1979, 1945, 1915 11 1.32 -.86 -.61 .067 .1100 24.689
1941, 1988, 1993 25 1.03 -.75 -1.32 .058 .2258 24.836
1975, 1949, 1912 10 1.16 .45 -.78 .36 .1371 24.972
1991, 1995 5 .98 -.49 .36 .68 .0761 25.263
a .28 .27 .24 .64

End-point P of first selected stable sequences. For first groupings, size n, standardized trend statistics for series u(t) and for dispersion ud(t), serial correlation statistic u(rs), one-sided probability P(N) of fit of the normal distribution, standard deviation s and mean m, significance level α for the joint two-sided significance levels of the standardized statistics u andone-sided significance level of the probability P(N).

 

Table 3. Final means and standard deviations for homogenous sequences.
  m(°C) s(°C)

P

a (d m)

(1) 24.03 .1829 1910, 1919  
(2) 24.39   1952, 1971, 1923, 1956 2.E-3.E-5
(3) 24.65   1927, 1964, 1979, 1945, 1915 7.E-5
(4) 24.97   1941, 1988, 1993, 1975, 1949, 1912 0.E-5
(5) 25.26   1991, 1995 4E-5

Average m and standard deviation s for sequences homogeneous in the mean, end-points P of original stable sequences and significance level α(δm) for the mean differences δm between consecutive means. 

 

Table 4. Temperature evolution in Casablanca (Cuba) during the period (1908-1995)
Periods Alternating means (table 3)
1908-1923 (1 - 2,3,4)
1924-1949 (3 - 4)
1950-1971 (2 - 3)
1972-1987 (3 - 4)
1988-1995 (4 - 5)

Annex


Bulletin author: Alejandro Bezanilla
Copyright © 2000 Cuban Metorogical Society 
Last modified: March 08, 2000
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