A seasonal forecasting method of tropical cyclone
activity on the Atlantic Ocean, Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean Sea, which is available to
its application at the beginning of May, is given. The predictors selected are based on
relationships between tropical cyclones and varying aspects of the pressure patterns, El
Niño / South Oscillation, stratospheric Quasi – Biennial Oscillation zonal winds and
the sea surface temperature of the North Atlantic tropical region. Through a linear
regression process a set of equations was obtained, which is enable to forecast: the
number of tropical cyclones (tropical storms plus hurricanes), the number of hurricanes,
its destruction potential, the number of tropical cyclones to be develop in oceanic area,
Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean Sea. In order to give a complementary information on possible
affecting risk for Cuba, moreover the prediction of the number of tropical cyclones to
develop on the Caribbean Sea, the systems that strike to this region are determined too.
The rank correlations obtained to determine the method’s skill with working sample
(33 hurricane seasons from 1966 to 1998) oscillate between 0.78 and 0.42, being
significant at the prefixed level of 5%.
